Post by Terry on Jun 19, 2007 13:18:09 GMT -5
Bob McKenzie
6/18/2007 6:46:57 PM
Those who study the annual NHL entry draft for a living - the scouts - will tell you the 2007 class is generally considered weak, that the elite prospects don't rival those of past years and the depth of talent is relatively shallow.
But those same NHL scouts will also point out that virtually every NHL draft produces a decent number of quality NHLers and this one likely won't be any different.
As one scout said, "There are good players out there, we just have to look harder to find them. There are a lot more projections in this draft. The good NHL players just aren't as obvious now, but that doesn't mean a lot of them won't develop into good pros."
What it is, then, is a draft of question marks.
In past years, when interviewing scouts and asking them to assess the available talent, any discussion of a top 10 prospect would lean heavily to their good qualities, with only a sprinkling of concern about their negatives. But this year, even for the top 10 picks, even for the few "elite" level prospects, it doesn't take long to get into their weaknesses as opposed to their strengths.
So if there is a proliferation of question marks surrounding the players in this draft, it only makes sense there are a lot of questions, too.
Who is No. 1?
The consensus choice is that diminutive London Knight forward Pat Kane is the best prospect available and if Chicago doesn't take him with the first pick, it will be a surprise. But Burnaby Jr. A star Kyle Turris has fair support as the best potential NHLer, although there are some who think he's not a top five pick, which is not the case at all for Kane. USA Under-18 power forward James van Riemsdyk is solidly entrenched as the No. 2 prospect and doesn't get much consideration as the best player available, but neither does he slide lower than two on most lists, three at the worst among scouts we interviewed. This trio, for the most part, is considered a cut above the rest of the draft field.
What to do with the Russians?
Alexei Cherepanov is a scoring machine who lit up the World Juniors and Russian Superleague, but the absence of an NHL transfer agreement with the Russians has GMs and scouts nervous. Many teams just don't want the aggravation of dealing with the uncertainty and potential cost of getting Cherepanov out of Europe in a timely fashion. As good a prospect as he is, he's not so good that there aren't attractive options closer to home. That said, each time he's not chosen on Friday, the pressure will increase on teams to roll the dice. At some point, he does become a lot more attractive than the next best North American. That's why many NHL GMs are praying that one of the top-picking teams will bite early and take the pressure off them.
The lack of a Russia-NHL agreement won't just impact on Cherepanov. Maxim Mayorov is a solid first round prospect who would be virtually guaranteed a top 20 selection if an agreement were in place. Without one? He could slide to the second round. The bottom line: the absence of an agreement will have a severe impact on the number of Russians taken and how high they go. But then, that's the idea as far as the Russian Ice Hockey Federation is concerned.
What's the story on Angelo Esposito?
Touted a year ago as the can't-miss No. 1 prospect, the Quebec Rempart centre has been given the Phil Kessel treatment and then some. Kessel, of course, was touted to be No. 1 a full year ahead of the 2006 draft, but went No. 5 overall to Boston. It seems as though some teams are coming back around on Esposito, realizing there's probably been some piling on in terms of criticism. He is still a consensus top 10 pick and there's a chance that could happen, but there's also a chance he could slide out. His will be one of the fascinating stories chronicled on Draft Day.
Which country will fare best in the first round?
It is going to be a strong draft for Americans. If, for example, Kane and van Riemsdyk go first and second, that would be the first time Americans went 1-2. And there are more, many more American prospects. There is a plethora of U.S. defencemen who could go in the first round, most prominent among them Ryan McDonagh, Kevin Shattenkirk, Nick Petrecki, Jonathan Blum, Tommy Cross, Ian Cole and Colby Cohen. Some will challenge for top 10 status.
Canada will be well represented, as usual. Let's call it a strong North American year. Even stronger if you consider the number of Europeans - including Jakub Voracek, Oscar Moller, Michael Repik and Ruslan Bashkirov - who are playing for teams in the Canadian Hockey League. If there are more than three or four Euro-born, completely Euro-trained first-rounders (Cherepanov, Mayorov, Mikael Backlund and Lars Eller), it will be a surprise.
So let's call it a great year for the Danes. Eller, who plays in the Swedish League for Frolunda, is a proud Dane who will certainly become the highest drafted player from his country. A Great Dane, to be sure.
Where are the goalies?
Good question. Probably in the second round. That isn't to say a team, especially one with multiple picks, might not take the goalie they want in the first round, but it's widely considered a sub-par year for 'tenders.
Jeremy Smith is the consensus No. 1, but individual teams have many different preferences, from Smith to Trevor Cann to Tyson Sexsmith to Antoine Lafleur to Linden Rowat to Bradley Eidsness to Europeans such as Joel Gistedt and Mark Owuya.
If more than one goalie goes in the first round, it will be a surprise and if it's none, don't be shocked. That is highly unusual, especially in recent times when goalies have routinely gone in the top 10 or even the top five.
Who are the wild cards?
Too numerous to mention in a draft that there is such a divergence of opinion, but here are some names to keep an eye on:
- Angelo Esposito, for all the reasons listed above.
- Akim Aliu, the bad boy of the draft who is on his third CHL team and seems to have trouble follow him around. But he is a first round talent and now that he's with the respected London Knights' organization, he might become a more attractive commodity.
- Luca Cunti, a highly skilled Swiss forward who is known for playing the game his way, as opposed to the way his coaches want it played. In terms of flat out speed, skill and pizzazz, Cunti has it all.
When it's all said and done, the 2007 draft is going to be an intriguing one to re-visit four or five years down the road to see if it's as weak a class as the scouts maintain. In the meantime, though, there are many intriguing prospects with interesting stories. So without further ado, here is the TSN Top 60, with 10 Honorable Mentions, for the 2007 NHL Entry Draft.
These are "consensus" rankings determined by interviewing more than a dozen NHL scouts. Over the years, it has been a very good barometer for determining which players will be selected in the first round.
But this year, 2007, could present some challenges to the system that it has never encountered.
In the more than 20 years I have been doing rankings of this nature, there has NEVER been a year like this, where players ranked as low as 50 by some teams are getting serious first round consideration from others. It is a draft of highly interchangeable parts; personal preferences and organizational needs will come into play more than ever this year.
There has never been such a wide divergence of opinion on the prospects, even within the top 10, so whatever this draft may lack in marquee value will be more than offset by the intrigue of unpredictability.
www.tsn.ca/nhl/news_story/?ID=211198&hubname=nhl
TSN's top 60 list
6/18/2007 6:46:57 PM
Those who study the annual NHL entry draft for a living - the scouts - will tell you the 2007 class is generally considered weak, that the elite prospects don't rival those of past years and the depth of talent is relatively shallow.
But those same NHL scouts will also point out that virtually every NHL draft produces a decent number of quality NHLers and this one likely won't be any different.
As one scout said, "There are good players out there, we just have to look harder to find them. There are a lot more projections in this draft. The good NHL players just aren't as obvious now, but that doesn't mean a lot of them won't develop into good pros."
What it is, then, is a draft of question marks.
In past years, when interviewing scouts and asking them to assess the available talent, any discussion of a top 10 prospect would lean heavily to their good qualities, with only a sprinkling of concern about their negatives. But this year, even for the top 10 picks, even for the few "elite" level prospects, it doesn't take long to get into their weaknesses as opposed to their strengths.
So if there is a proliferation of question marks surrounding the players in this draft, it only makes sense there are a lot of questions, too.
Who is No. 1?
The consensus choice is that diminutive London Knight forward Pat Kane is the best prospect available and if Chicago doesn't take him with the first pick, it will be a surprise. But Burnaby Jr. A star Kyle Turris has fair support as the best potential NHLer, although there are some who think he's not a top five pick, which is not the case at all for Kane. USA Under-18 power forward James van Riemsdyk is solidly entrenched as the No. 2 prospect and doesn't get much consideration as the best player available, but neither does he slide lower than two on most lists, three at the worst among scouts we interviewed. This trio, for the most part, is considered a cut above the rest of the draft field.
What to do with the Russians?
Alexei Cherepanov is a scoring machine who lit up the World Juniors and Russian Superleague, but the absence of an NHL transfer agreement with the Russians has GMs and scouts nervous. Many teams just don't want the aggravation of dealing with the uncertainty and potential cost of getting Cherepanov out of Europe in a timely fashion. As good a prospect as he is, he's not so good that there aren't attractive options closer to home. That said, each time he's not chosen on Friday, the pressure will increase on teams to roll the dice. At some point, he does become a lot more attractive than the next best North American. That's why many NHL GMs are praying that one of the top-picking teams will bite early and take the pressure off them.
The lack of a Russia-NHL agreement won't just impact on Cherepanov. Maxim Mayorov is a solid first round prospect who would be virtually guaranteed a top 20 selection if an agreement were in place. Without one? He could slide to the second round. The bottom line: the absence of an agreement will have a severe impact on the number of Russians taken and how high they go. But then, that's the idea as far as the Russian Ice Hockey Federation is concerned.
What's the story on Angelo Esposito?
Touted a year ago as the can't-miss No. 1 prospect, the Quebec Rempart centre has been given the Phil Kessel treatment and then some. Kessel, of course, was touted to be No. 1 a full year ahead of the 2006 draft, but went No. 5 overall to Boston. It seems as though some teams are coming back around on Esposito, realizing there's probably been some piling on in terms of criticism. He is still a consensus top 10 pick and there's a chance that could happen, but there's also a chance he could slide out. His will be one of the fascinating stories chronicled on Draft Day.
Which country will fare best in the first round?
It is going to be a strong draft for Americans. If, for example, Kane and van Riemsdyk go first and second, that would be the first time Americans went 1-2. And there are more, many more American prospects. There is a plethora of U.S. defencemen who could go in the first round, most prominent among them Ryan McDonagh, Kevin Shattenkirk, Nick Petrecki, Jonathan Blum, Tommy Cross, Ian Cole and Colby Cohen. Some will challenge for top 10 status.
Canada will be well represented, as usual. Let's call it a strong North American year. Even stronger if you consider the number of Europeans - including Jakub Voracek, Oscar Moller, Michael Repik and Ruslan Bashkirov - who are playing for teams in the Canadian Hockey League. If there are more than three or four Euro-born, completely Euro-trained first-rounders (Cherepanov, Mayorov, Mikael Backlund and Lars Eller), it will be a surprise.
So let's call it a great year for the Danes. Eller, who plays in the Swedish League for Frolunda, is a proud Dane who will certainly become the highest drafted player from his country. A Great Dane, to be sure.
Where are the goalies?
Good question. Probably in the second round. That isn't to say a team, especially one with multiple picks, might not take the goalie they want in the first round, but it's widely considered a sub-par year for 'tenders.
Jeremy Smith is the consensus No. 1, but individual teams have many different preferences, from Smith to Trevor Cann to Tyson Sexsmith to Antoine Lafleur to Linden Rowat to Bradley Eidsness to Europeans such as Joel Gistedt and Mark Owuya.
If more than one goalie goes in the first round, it will be a surprise and if it's none, don't be shocked. That is highly unusual, especially in recent times when goalies have routinely gone in the top 10 or even the top five.
Who are the wild cards?
Too numerous to mention in a draft that there is such a divergence of opinion, but here are some names to keep an eye on:
- Angelo Esposito, for all the reasons listed above.
- Akim Aliu, the bad boy of the draft who is on his third CHL team and seems to have trouble follow him around. But he is a first round talent and now that he's with the respected London Knights' organization, he might become a more attractive commodity.
- Luca Cunti, a highly skilled Swiss forward who is known for playing the game his way, as opposed to the way his coaches want it played. In terms of flat out speed, skill and pizzazz, Cunti has it all.
When it's all said and done, the 2007 draft is going to be an intriguing one to re-visit four or five years down the road to see if it's as weak a class as the scouts maintain. In the meantime, though, there are many intriguing prospects with interesting stories. So without further ado, here is the TSN Top 60, with 10 Honorable Mentions, for the 2007 NHL Entry Draft.
These are "consensus" rankings determined by interviewing more than a dozen NHL scouts. Over the years, it has been a very good barometer for determining which players will be selected in the first round.
But this year, 2007, could present some challenges to the system that it has never encountered.
In the more than 20 years I have been doing rankings of this nature, there has NEVER been a year like this, where players ranked as low as 50 by some teams are getting serious first round consideration from others. It is a draft of highly interchangeable parts; personal preferences and organizational needs will come into play more than ever this year.
There has never been such a wide divergence of opinion on the prospects, even within the top 10, so whatever this draft may lack in marquee value will be more than offset by the intrigue of unpredictability.
www.tsn.ca/nhl/news_story/?ID=211198&hubname=nhl
TSN's top 60 list